基于SARIMA-LSTM组合模型构建抗过敏滴眼液消耗量预测模型
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作者单位:

(首都医科大学附属北京朝阳医院药事部 北京 100020)

作者简介:

齐睿娟,博士,药师;通信作者:安卓玲,博士,教授,主任药师。

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中图分类号:

R-058

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Construction of an Anti-allergic Eye Drop Consumption Prediction Model Based on the SARIMA-LSTM Hybrid Model
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(Department of Pharmacy, Beijing Chaoyang Hospital,Capital Medical University, Beijing 100020,China)

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    摘要:

    目的/意义 预测医院门诊药房中抗过敏滴眼液月消耗量,为精细化医院药品采购及库管工作提供参考。方法/过程 以2013年1月—2023年12月首都医科大学附属北京朝阳医院门诊药房中抗过敏滴眼液逐月消耗量为时间序列,采用SPSS 29.0软件构建SARIMA模型,使用Python 3.12.1软件构建SARIMA-LSTM组合模型。以2021年10月—2023年12月数据验证两种模型的预测效果,并应用两种模型对2024年1—6月抗过敏滴眼液消耗量进行短期预测。结果/结论 SARIMA-LSTM组合模型在拟合验证集数据及对未来短期预测中的平均绝对误差、平均绝对百分比误差、均方误差平方根均低于SARIMA模型。SARIMA-LSTM组合模型对医院门诊药房抗过敏滴眼液消耗量预测效果更佳,具有一定实用价值。

    Abstract:

    Purpose/Significance To predict the monthly consumption of the anti-allergic eye drops in the outpatient pharmacy of hospitals, and to provide references for the refined drug procurement and inventory management in hospitals. Method/Process Taking the monthly consumption of anti-allergic eye drops in the outpatient pharmacy of Beijing Chaoyang Hospital, Capital Medical University from January 2013 to December 2023 as the time series, the SARIMA model is constructed using SPSS 29.0 software, and the SARIMA-LSTM combined model is constructed using Python 3.12.1 software. The predictive effects of the two models are verified based on the data from October 2021 to December 2023, and the two models are applied to make short-term predictions on the consumption of anti-allergic eye drops from January to June 2024. Result/Conclusion The SARIMA-LSTM hybrid model demonstrates lower average absolute error (MAE) , mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE) in both the validation dataset and the future prediction compared to the SARIMA model. The SARIMA-LSTM hybrid model provides better forecasting performance for the drug consumption and has practical application value.

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齐睿娟,王应楷,杨婧,等.基于SARIMA-LSTM组合模型构建抗过敏滴眼液消耗量预测模型[J].医学信息学杂志,2025,46(7):59-65

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  • 最后修改日期:2025-03-17
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-08-14
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